Promoter scorecard
Elon Musk
CEO, Tesla (+ founder, multiple other companies)·Tesla, Inc.TSLA
Tenure since October 2008 · 17 years
Oct 19 2016 - Apr 22 2026
11 forward commitments tracked across 8 earnings calls
Last verified: April 22, 2026
0
/ 100
Visionary, serial timeline slipper
Tracked
11
commitments
Kept
2
18% delivered
Partial
2
honest hedges
Missed
6
below commit
Pending
1
deadline ahead
World-class at delivering on hardware buildouts that have committed factories and capital behind them. Chronically over-promises on autonomy and AI timelines, often by years. The pattern has been consistent for a decade.
Score trajectory · 8 quarters
Rolling specificity-weighted score
By category
Coverage window only
Capacity / supply
801/2
Financial guidance
702/3
Product timelines
251/8
Next earnings preview
Late July 2026
Forecast generated from the CEO's own track record only.
Data analytics, not investment advice.
What he promised
Capex $25B+ for 2026; Optimus production start late July / August
Stated at the most recent earnings call. Verifiable when Late July 2026 reports come in.
How often he's delivered
55%
of similar
promises kept
promises kept
Promises tracked11
Verified kept2 (18%)
Missed or dropped6
Partial2
Typical beat margin
+1.5%
vs his
own guidance
own guidance
Low ·-10%
High ·+12%
Range across his last several beats.
What could go wrongOptimus production start (late July / August) is the single most concentrated event-risk on the calendar. A slip would be the third time in 18 months an Optimus deadline has moved. A hit would be the first major product-timeline kept since the Texas factory.
Track record · promise-anchored
Every time he made
commitments, what followed.
TSLA · raw stock returns
Entry: 1st close strictly after the call
Data analytics, not investment advice.
Stock movement 30 days after each promise-making call · oldest → newest
-7.3%
16/10
+7.6%
17/11
-1.6%
18/04
-25.9%
19/04
+25.9%
19/11
+10.6%
20/09
-3.2%
26/01
26/04
Each row anchored at the date the CEO made the commitments. “Track record going in” uses only commitments verified at calls strictly before this one — walk-forward, no look-ahead. Forward stock returns measured from the first close strictly after the call, with no SPY or beta adjustment. We do not issue buy or sell recommendations.
Receipts
The strongest delivery and the cleanest miss.
Strongest delivery
Shanghai Gigafactory: groundbreak to production in ~10 months
“Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory commits production schedule.”
Elon Musk · 2019
Outcome: Groundbreaking January 2019, first Model 3 produced October 2019. Genuine execution achievement on a hardware-and-construction project.
The miss
FSD 'ready next year' — said every year since 2016
“I really would consider autonomous driving to be a basically a solved problem.”
Elon Musk · 2019 Tesla Autonomy Day (one of many instances)
Outcome: Variants of 'FSD ready next year' have been on the record in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024. As of Q1 2026, FSD remains a Level 2 driver-assist with no regulatory approval for unsupervised operation in any major US market.
Full record
11 tracked commitments.
Click any row for the original quote, outcome, and source.
Kept
Q4 2025
$20B+ capex for 2026, 6 new factories
capacitySpecificity 0.90 · Deadline Dec 31 2026 · Elon Musk
MadeJan 28, 26
ResolvedApr 22, 26
Original commitment
“Management guided for over $20B in CapEx for 2026, driven by six new factories and AI infrastructure.”
Outcome
Q1 2026 call: capex revised UP to $25B+, exceeding the original $20B+ commitment. Six-factory plan reaffirmed.
Q1 2026 concall · Apr 22 2026
Kept
Historical
Shanghai Gigafactory operational within a year
capacitySpecificity 0.95 · Original deadline Q4 2019 · Elon Musk
MadeApr 22, 19
Statuspending
Original commitment
“Shanghai factory will be producing Model 3 by the end of 2019.”
Outcome
First Model 3 produced October 2019. One of the cleanest Tesla execution wins on a major hardware program.
Historical reporting · 2019
Partial
Q4 2025
Cybercab volume production in 2026
productSpecificity 0.85 · Deadline Dec 31 2026 · Elon Musk
MadeJan 28, 26
ResolvedApr 22, 26
Original commitment
“Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Megapack 3 are on schedule for volume production starting in 2026.”
Outcome
Q1 2026: 'volume production starting in 2026' reaffirmed. Production lines being installed. Partial credit because the schedule has held quarter-over-quarter; pending volume actual.
Q1 2026 concall · Apr 22 2026
Partial
Q4 2025
Optimus production starts before end of 2026, 1M robots/year eventual capacity
productSpecificity 0.80 · Deadline Dec 31 2026 (initial) · Elon Musk
MadeJan 28, 26
ResolvedApr 22, 26
Original commitment
“Start of production planned before the end of 2026 and eventual planned capacity of 1 million robots per year.”
Outcome
Q1 2026: 'Start of production... late July, August timeframe.' Partial credit for the timeline holding; 1M/year capacity is a multi-year aspiration with no near-term verification.
Q1 2026 concall · Apr 22 2026
Missed
Historical
$25,000 Tesla model in 3 years
productSpecificity 0.85 · Original deadline 2023 · Elon Musk
MadeSep 22, 20
Statuspending
Original commitment
“We are confident that long-term we can design and manufacture a compelling $25,000 electric vehicle... probably about three years from now.”
Outcome
As of Q1 2026: no $25,000 Tesla in production. Project was reportedly cancelled in 2024 in favor of Cybercab. Counts as a clear miss against the explicit 'three years from now' commitment.
Battery Day 2020 commitment · 2020-09-22
Missed
Historical
Cybertruck production starts Q3 2021
productSpecificity 0.90 · Original deadline Q3 2021 · Elon Musk
MadeNov 21, 19
Statuspending
Original commitment
“Production will start late 2021.”
Outcome
First production Cybertruck delivered November 2023. ~2-year delay. Production volumes since launch have run materially below original targets.
Public commitments 2019-2023
Missed
Historical
1 million robotaxis on the road by 2020
productSpecificity 0.95 · Original deadline 2020 · Elon Musk
MadeApr 22, 19
Statuspending
Original commitment
“Next year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road.”
Outcome
As of Q1 2026: zero Tesla robotaxis operating commercially. Cybercab was unveiled October 2024 with production targeted for 2026; Q1 2026 update is 'volume production starting in 2026.' 5+ year delay relative to original commitment.
Public commitments 2019-2026
Missed
Historical
Tesla profitable every quarter going forward
financialSpecificity 0.90 · Original deadline 2018+ · Elon Musk
MadeApr 13, 18
Statuspending
Original commitment
“We will be profitable in Q3 and beyond. No more capital raises needed.”
Outcome
Tesla raised $2.3B in May 2019, then ~$2B in February 2020, then $5B in September 2020. Multiple unprofitable quarters in 2019 and 2020. Eventual sustained profitability achieved 2020 onward.
Public commitments 2018-2020
Missed
Historical
Tesla Roadster 2.0 enters production by 2020
productSpecificity 0.85 · Original deadline 2020 · Elon Musk
MadeNov 16, 17
Statuspending
Original commitment
“This will be the fastest production car ever made... 2020 production.”
Outcome
As of Q1 2026: still not in production. Roadster has been promised on multiple subsequent timelines, all missed. ~5-year delay relative to original commitment.
Public commitments 2017-2026
Missed
Historical
Coast-to-coast fully autonomous demo by end of 2017
productSpecificity 1.00 · Original deadline Dec 31 2017 · Elon Musk
MadeOct 19, 16
Statuspending
Original commitment
“By the end of next year, you'll be able to summon a Tesla to your home from anywhere in North America.”
Outcome
Never happened. Closest execution was the November 2019 cross-country (LA to NY) drive on Autopilot, not full autonomy. 8+ years past original commitment, still not delivered.
Public commitments 2016-2026
Pending
Q1 2026
FSD EU approval in Q2 2026
productSpecificity 0.85 · Deadline Jun 30 2026 · Elon Musk
MadeApr 22, 26
Statuspending
Original commitment
“The company expects EU-wide approval for FSD in Q2.”
Outcome
Tracking · pending regulatory verification.
Tracking · pending
Assessment
The pattern, in one paragraph.
Two patterns coexist. Hardware-and-capital programs with committed factories tend to execute (Shanghai Gigafactory, Texas, Berlin). Autonomy and AI timeline commitments are off by years, sometimes by half a decade. FSD, Cybercab, Roadster 2.0, $25K Tesla, and Coast-to-Coast Autonomy are all explicit commitments missed by multiple years or never delivered. The score of 38 reflects this asymmetry: financial and capacity execution score in the 70s-80s, but product timeline credibility is materially below the median CEO. The most recent quarters show some stabilization (FSD China approval, EU approval pending) but the cumulative track record over a decade weighs heavily.
Source data: company earnings call transcripts and SEC filings. Every commitment links to a verifiable quote with deadline, outcome, and source. Methodology: specificity-weighted average of outcomes over verifiable promises. Verification: kept = delivered against stated metric; partial = honest hedge with material walk-back; missed = specific commitment unmet; silent_drop = no follow-up for 2+ subsequent calls; unverifiable = insufficient evidence.
Data analytics, not investment advice. Track-record metrics derived from publicly available executive statements. To dispute a finding, email info@b3quant.com.