Promoter scorecard
Jensen Huang
President & CEO·NVIDIA CorporationNVDA
Tenure since April 1993 · 33 years
May 28 2025 - Nov 19 2025
17 forward commitments tracked across 3 earnings calls
Last verified: February 25, 2026
0
/ 100
Top decile
Tracked
17
commitments
Kept
13
76% delivered
Partial
1
honest hedges
Missed
1
below commit
Pending
2
deadline ahead
Conservative guidance, clean beats. Specific product timelines delivered in every case examined. One honest walk-back on H20 China.
Score trajectory · 8 quarters
Rolling specificity-weighted score
By category
Coverage window only
Product timelines
1005/5
Capacity / supply
1002/2
Financial guidance
895/8
Operational
500/1
Next earnings preview
Late May 2026
Forecast generated from the CEO's own track record only.
Data analytics, not investment advice.
What he promised
$78B revenue ± 2%, gross margin 74.9% GAAP / 75% non-GAAP
Stated at the most recent earnings call. Verifiable when Late May 2026 reports come in.
How often he's delivered
92%
of similar
promises kept
promises kept
Promises tracked17
Verified kept13 (76%)
Missed or dropped1
Partial1
Typical beat margin
+4.6%
vs his
own guidance
own guidance
Low ·+3%
High ·+6.5%
Range across his last several beats.
What could go wrongChina remains the largest swing factor — Q1 FY27 guidance assumes zero data center compute revenue from China. Reversal in either direction would move the print materially.
Track record · promise-anchored
Every time he made
commitments, what followed.
NVDA · raw stock returns
Entry: 1st close strictly after the call
Data analytics, not investment advice.
Stock movement 30 days after each promise-making call · oldest → newest
+13.5%
25/05
+0.9%
25/08
+1.7%
25/11
Each row anchored at the date the CEO made the commitments. “Track record going in” uses only commitments verified at calls strictly before this one — walk-forward, no look-ahead. Forward stock returns measured from the first close strictly after the call, with no SPY or beta adjustment. We do not issue buy or sell recommendations.
Receipts
The strongest delivery and the cleanest miss.
Strongest delivery
Sovereign AI revenue exceeded $20B → delivered $30B+ (+50%)
“Sovereign AI revenue over $20 billion this year, more than double prior year.”
Colette Kress · Q2 FY26 concall · Aug 27 2025
Outcome: Q4 FY26: Sovereign AI revenue exceeded $30 billion for the year, more than tripling. Beat by ~50%.
The miss
H20 China $2-5B conditional revenue → zero
“Initial set of licenses received... ready to ship $2-5B this quarter potentially.”
Colette Kress · Q2 FY26 concall · Aug 27 2025
Outcome: Q3 FY26: Sizable purchase orders never materialized... we are not assuming any data center compute revenue from China.
Full record
17 tracked commitments.
Click any row for the original quote, outcome, and source.
Kept
Q3 FY26
Q4 FY26 revenue guide: $65B ± 2%
financialSpecificity 1.00 · Deadline Feb 25 2026 · Colette Kress
MadeNov 19, 25
ResolvedFeb 25, 26
Original commitment
“Expected revenue: $65 billion ±2%.”
Outcome
Q4 FY26 reported $68 billion. Beat by ~4.6%.
Q4 FY26 concall · Feb 25 2026
Kept
Q3 FY26
Q4 FY26 gross margin: 74.875% ± 50bp
financialSpecificity 1.00 · Deadline Feb 25 2026 · Colette Kress
MadeNov 19, 25
ResolvedFeb 25, 26
Original commitment
“Gross margin: 74.875% ±50 bps for Q4.”
Outcome
Q4 FY26 actuals in line with guidance midpoint.
Q4 FY26 concall · Feb 25 2026
Kept
Q3 FY26
Rubin platform ramps in calendar 2026
productSpecificity 0.70 · Deadline Dec 31 2026 · Jensen Huang
MadeNov 19, 25
ResolvedFeb 25, 26
Original commitment
“Rubin platform on track to ramp in 2026.”
Outcome
Q4 FY26: Samples shipped one quarter ahead of plan.
Q4 FY26 concall · Feb 25 2026
Kept
Q2 FY26
Q3 FY26 revenue guide: $54B ± 2%
financialSpecificity 1.00 · Deadline Nov 19 2025 · Colette Kress
MadeAug 27, 25
ResolvedNov 19, 25
Original commitment
“Total revenue expected to be $54 billion in Q3.”
Outcome
Q3 FY26 reported $57 billion. Beat guidance midpoint by ~5.5%.
Q3 FY26 concall · Nov 19 2025
Kept
Q2 FY26
Rubin platform on schedule for volume production in 2026
productSpecificity 0.75 · Deadline Dec 31 2026 · Jensen Huang
MadeAug 27, 25
ResolvedFeb 25, 26
Original commitment
“Rubin platform on schedule for volume production next year.”
Outcome
Q4 FY26: First Vera Rubin samples shipped to customers; H2 2026 production reaffirmed.
Q4 FY26 concall · Feb 25 2026
Kept
Q2 FY26
Sovereign AI revenue exceeds $20B in FY26
financialSpecificity 0.85 · Deadline Jan 26 2026 · Colette Kress
MadeAug 27, 25
ResolvedFeb 25, 26
Original commitment
“Sovereign AI revenue over $20 billion this year, more than double prior year.”
Outcome
Q4 FY26: Sovereign AI exceeded $30 billion, more than tripling.
Q4 FY26 concall · Feb 25 2026
Kept
Q1 FY26
GB300 production shipments to begin in Q2 FY26
productSpecificity 0.80 · Deadline Aug 27 2025 · Colette Kress
MadeMay 28, 25
ResolvedAug 27, 25
Original commitment
“Sampling began earlier this month; production shipments expected later this quarter.”
Outcome
Production shipments of GB300 began in Q2 at ~1,000 racks/week.
Q2 FY26 concall · Aug 27 2025
Kept
Q1 FY26
DGX Spark launches in calendar Q3 2025
productSpecificity 0.75 · Deadline Sep 30 2025 · Jensen Huang
MadeMay 28, 25
ResolvedAug 27, 25
Original commitment
“DGX Spark available in calendar Q3.”
Outcome
Launched on schedule; no contradiction in subsequent calls.
Q2 FY26 concall · Aug 27 2025
Kept
Q1 FY26
Foxconn Houston operational within 12 months
capacitySpecificity 0.70 · Deadline May 28 2026 · Jensen Huang
MadeMay 28, 25
ResolvedFeb 25, 26
Original commitment
“From chip to supercomputer, built in America, within a year.”
Outcome
Facility operational per Q4 FY26 references.
Q4 FY26 concall · Feb 25 2026
Kept
Q1 FY26
TSMC Arizona volume production by end of 2025
capacitySpecificity 0.75 · Deadline Dec 31 2025 · Jensen Huang
MadeMay 28, 25
ResolvedNov 19, 25
Original commitment
“Six TSMC fabs in Arizona with volume production expected by year-end.”
Outcome
Active production by Q3 FY26 commentary.
Q3 FY26 concall · Nov 19 2025
Kept
Q1 FY26
Q2 FY26 gross margin: 71.8% GAAP / 72% non-GAAP
financialSpecificity 1.00 · Deadline Aug 27 2025 · Colette Kress
MadeMay 28, 25
ResolvedAug 27, 25
Original commitment
“GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins expected at 71.8% and 72% respectively for Q2.”
Outcome
Q2 reported margins in line with or slightly ahead of guidance.
Q2 FY26 concall · Aug 27 2025
Kept
Q1 FY26
Mid-70s gross margins by late FY26
financialSpecificity 0.65 · Deadline Jan 26 2026 · Colette Kress
MadeMay 28, 25
ResolvedFeb 25, 26
Original commitment
“Management aims to achieve gross margins in the mid-seventies range late this year.”
Outcome
Q1 FY27 guide is 74.9% / 75% at midpoint. Delivered.
Q4 FY26 concall · Feb 25 2026
Kept
Q1 FY26
Nintendo Switch 2 launches with custom NVIDIA RTX in 2025
productSpecificity 0.65 · Deadline Dec 31 2025 · Jensen Huang
MadeMay 28, 25
ResolvedAug 27, 25
Original commitment
“Nintendo Switch 2 leverages next-generation custom RTX GPUs.”
Outcome
Launched mid-2025; gaming segment revenue reflected the contribution.
Q2 FY26 concall · Aug 27 2025
Partial
Q1 FY26
Limited options for China H20 under new export controls
operationalSpecificity 0.30 · No deadline · Jensen Huang
MadeMay 28, 25
ResolvedNov 19, 25
Original commitment
“The new limits pretty much make it impossible to reduce Hopper further... we have some limited options but have nothing to announce today.”
Outcome
Q3 FY26: 'we are not assuming any data center compute revenue from China.' Honest walk-back rather than buried.
Q3 FY26 concall · Nov 19 2025
Missed
Q2 FY26
$2-5B H20 China revenue possible in Q3 if licenses materialize
financialSpecificity 0.70 · Deadline Nov 19 2025 · Colette Kress
MadeAug 27, 25
ResolvedNov 19, 25
Original commitment
“Initial set of licenses received... ready to ship $2-5B this quarter potentially.”
Outcome
Q3 FY26: Sizable purchase orders never materialized... no data center compute revenue from China.
Q3 FY26 concall · Nov 19 2025
Pending
Q3 FY26
$0.5T cumulative Blackwell + Rubin revenue through end CY 2026
financialSpecificity 0.85 · Deadline Dec 31 2026 · Colette Kress
MadeNov 19, 25
Statuspending
Original commitment
“Visibility to a half a trillion dollars in Blackwell and Rubin revenue from the start of this year through the end of calendar year 2026.”
Outcome
Tracking favorably; pending Dec 2026 verification.
Tracking · pending
Pending
Q3 FY26
Hold mid-70s gross margins through FY27
financialSpecificity 0.65 · Deadline Jan 25 2027 · Colette Kress
MadeNov 19, 25
Statuspending
Original commitment
“Working to hold gross margins in the mid-seventies (fiscal 2027).”
Outcome
Q1 FY27 guide 74.9% / 75% at midpoint. Consistent so far.
Tracking · pending
Assessment
The pattern, in one paragraph.
Top decile of CEOs by track record across FY26. Conservative guidance followed by clean beats, with specific product timelines delivered or on-track in every case examined. The one miss (H20 China conditional revenue) was transparent; management flagged uncertainty in real time. The score of 91 reflects consistent execution, honest disclosure around the miss, and two material forward commitments still pending verification.
Source data: company earnings call transcripts and SEC filings. Every commitment links to a verifiable quote with deadline, outcome, and source. Methodology: specificity-weighted average of outcomes over verifiable promises. Verification: kept = delivered against stated metric; partial = honest hedge with material walk-back; missed = specific commitment unmet; silent_drop = no follow-up for 2+ subsequent calls; unverifiable = insufficient evidence.
Data analytics, not investment advice. Track-record metrics derived from publicly available executive statements. To dispute a finding, email info@b3quant.com.