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Promoter scorecard

Satya Nadella

CEO and Chairman·Microsoft CorporationMSFT
Tenure since February 2014 · 12 years
Oct 29 2025 - Jan 28 2026
8 forward commitments tracked across 2 earnings calls
Last verified: January 28, 2026
0
/ 100
Top decile
Tracked
8
commitments
Kept
4
50% delivered
Partial
0
—
Missed
0
—
Pending
4
deadline ahead
Capex commitments delivered. Cloud and Copilot growth targets executed. Capacity-constrained narrative consistent across quarters. Some pending forward commitments yet to be tested.

Score trajectory · 8 quarters

Rolling specificity-weighted score

70809010088-8q-6q-4q-2qnow

By category

Coverage window only

Financial guidance
1004/7
Product timelines
1002/3
Capacity / supply
1001/1

Next earnings preview

Late April 2026

Forecast generated from the CEO's own track record only.
Data analytics, not investment advice.
What he promised
Revenue $80.65-81.75B (+15-17%); Azure 37-38% in CC
Stated at the most recent earnings call. Verifiable when Late April 2026 reports come in.
How often he's delivered
82%
of similar
promises kept
Promises tracked8
Verified kept4 (50%)
Typical beat margin
+2.4%
vs his
own guidance
Low ·+0.8%
High ·+4%
Range across his last several beats.
What could go wrongAzure growth deceleration if AI demand digestion slows is the primary downside variable. The capacity-constrained narrative has held for two consecutive quarters but begins to flip when supply catches up.

Track record · promise-anchored

Every time he made
commitments, what followed.

MSFT · raw stock returns
Entry: 1st close strictly after the call
Data analytics, not investment advice.
Stock movement 30 days after each promise-making call · oldest → newest
-7.3%
25/10
-7.8%
26/01

Each row anchored at the date the CEO made the commitments. “Track record going in” uses only commitments verified at calls strictly before this one — walk-forward, no look-ahead. Forward stock returns measured from the first close strictly after the call, with no SPY or beta adjustment. We do not issue buy or sell recommendations.

Receipts

The strongest delivery and the cleanest miss.

Strongest delivery
Microsoft Cloud surpassed $50B/quarter for the first time
“Microsoft Cloud revenue surpassed $49 billion, up 26% year over year.”
Satya Nadella · Q1 FY26 concall · Oct 29 2025
Outcome: Q2 FY26: Microsoft Cloud crossed $50 billion in a quarter for the first time at $51.5 billion (+26% CC). Threshold cleared on schedule.
The miss
Q2 FY26 cloud gross margin declined as guided
“Cloud gross margin percentage was expected to be roughly 66%, down year-over-year driven by continued investments in AI.”
Amy Hood · Q1 FY26 concall · Oct 29 2025
Outcome: Q2 FY26: Cloud gross margin 65%, down YoY. In line with guidance but represents intentional margin compression.

Full record

8 tracked commitments.

Click any row for the original quote, outcome, and source.
Kept
Q1 FY26
Q2 FY26 capex to increase sequentially
financialSpecificity 0.70 · Deadline Jan 28 2026 · Amy Hood
MadeOct 29, 25
ResolvedJan 28, 26
Original commitment
“Total capex to increase sequentially, with the FY26 growth rate expected to be higher than FY25.”
Outcome
Q2 FY26 capex hit $37.5 billion, up sequentially as committed.
Q2 FY26 concall · Jan 28 2026
Kept
Q1 FY26
Capacity constrained through end of fiscal year
capacitySpecificity 0.60 · Deadline Jun 30 2026 · Amy Hood
MadeOct 29, 25
ResolvedJan 28, 26
Original commitment
“Microsoft expected to be capacity constrained through at least the end of the fiscal year, with demand exceeding current infrastructure build-out.”
Outcome
Q2 FY26: 'Demand continues to exceed supply.' Constraint thesis confirmed.
Q2 FY26 concall · Jan 28 2026
Kept
Q1 FY26
Cloud gross margin ~66% in Q2 FY26
financialSpecificity 0.90 · Deadline Jan 28 2026 · Amy Hood
MadeOct 29, 25
ResolvedJan 28, 26
Original commitment
“Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage was expected to be roughly 66%, down year-over-year driven by continued investments in AI.”
Outcome
Q2 FY26 cloud gross margin reported at 65%, within guidance band.
Q2 FY26 concall · Jan 28 2026
Kept
Q1 FY26
Commercial RPO continues to grow at >50% pace
financialSpecificity 0.55 · Deadline Jan 28 2026 · Amy Hood
MadeOct 29, 25
ResolvedJan 28, 26
Original commitment
“Commercial RPO grew over 50% to nearly $400 billion with a weighted average duration of only two years.”
Outcome
Q2 FY26: Commercial RPO rose to $625 billion, up 11% sequentially; the ex-OpenAI portion grew 28%.
Q2 FY26 concall · Jan 28 2026
Pending
Q2 FY26
Q3 FY26 revenue guide: $80.65B-$81.75B (+15-17%)
financialSpecificity 1.00 · Deadline Apr 2026 · Amy Hood
MadeJan 28, 26
Statuspending
Original commitment
“$80.65 billion to $81.75 billion or growth of 15 to 17%.”
Outcome
Q3 FY26 reporting pending.
Tracking · pending
Pending
Q2 FY26
Q3 FY26 Azure growth 37-38% in constant currency
financialSpecificity 1.00 · Deadline Apr 2026 · Amy Hood
MadeJan 28, 26
Statuspending
Original commitment
“Q3 revenue growth to be between 37 to 38% in constant currency.”
Outcome
Q3 FY26 reporting pending.
Tracking · pending
Pending
Q2 FY26
FY26 operating margins to be up slightly
financialSpecificity 0.65 · Deadline Jun 30 2026 · Amy Hood
MadeJan 28, 26
Statuspending
Original commitment
“Microsoft now expects FY26 operating margins to be up slightly.”
Outcome
Pending FY26 close.
Tracking · pending
Pending
Q2 FY26
250 customers on track to process >1T tokens on Foundry in FY26
productSpecificity 0.80 · Deadline Jun 30 2026 · Satya Nadella
MadeJan 28, 26
Statuspending
Original commitment
“250 customers are on track to process over 1 trillion tokens on Foundry this year.”
Outcome
Pending FY26 close.
Tracking · pending

Assessment

The pattern, in one paragraph.

Highest-credibility tier. Capex, capacity, and cloud growth commitments delivered in every verifiable case. The Q2 FY26 forward stack (Q3 revenue guide, Azure growth, FY26 operating margin) is still pending verification; the historical pattern strongly suggests they land on or above guidance. Score of 88 sits below Jensen's 91 only because the verifiable sample is smaller (2 quarters in coverage vs 4).

Source data: company earnings call transcripts and SEC filings. Every commitment links to a verifiable quote with deadline, outcome, and source. Methodology: specificity-weighted average of outcomes over verifiable promises. Verification: kept = delivered against stated metric; partial = honest hedge with material walk-back; missed = specific commitment unmet; silent_drop = no follow-up for 2+ subsequent calls; unverifiable = insufficient evidence.

Data analytics, not investment advice. Track-record metrics derived from publicly available executive statements. To dispute a finding, email info@b3quant.com.