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Promoter scorecard

Tim Cook

CEO (transitioning to Executive Chairman Sep 1 2026)·Apple Inc.AAPL
Tenure since August 2011 · 14 years
Feb 27 2024 - Apr 30 2026
5 forward commitments tracked across 3 earnings calls
Last verified: April 30, 2026
0
/ 100
Reliable with notable misses
Tracked
5
commitments
Kept
1
20% delivered
Partial
1
honest hedges
Missed
1
below commit
Pending
2
deadline ahead
Strong on services growth, India, and capital returns. Two material credibility hits: the Apple Car (cancelled after a decade) and the more-personalized Siri (originally promised for 2024, still 'coming this year').

Score trajectory · 8 quarters

Rolling specificity-weighted score

70809010078-8q-6q-4q-2qnow

By category

Coverage window only

Capacity / supply
1001/1
Financial guidance
953/4
Product timelines
602/4

Next earnings preview

Late July 2026 · last call as CEO

Forecast generated from the CEO's own track record only.
Data analytics, not investment advice.
What he promised
Revenue +14-17% YoY; gross margin 47.5-48.5%
Stated at the most recent earnings call. Verifiable when Late July 2026 · last call as CEO reports come in.
How often he's delivered
78%
of similar
promises kept
Promises tracked5
Verified kept1 (20%)
Missed or dropped1
Partial1
Typical beat margin
+2%
vs his
own guidance
Low ·+0.5%
High ·+4%
Range across his last several beats.
What could go wrongCEO transition is rare — Cook's final call as CEO carries unusual symbolism. Markets typically price in narrative shifts. Watch for either a confidence boost (Cook polishes the handover) or a defensive posture (commitments hedged for Ternus to inherit).

Track record · promise-anchored

Every time he made
commitments, what followed.

AAPL · raw stock returns
Entry: 1st close strictly after the call
Data analytics, not investment advice.
Stock movement 30 days after each promise-making call · oldest → newest
-6.3%
24/02
+2.1%
26/01
26/04

Each row anchored at the date the CEO made the commitments. “Track record going in” uses only commitments verified at calls strictly before this one — walk-forward, no look-ahead. Forward stock returns measured from the first close strictly after the call, with no SPY or beta adjustment. We do not issue buy or sell recommendations.

Receipts

The strongest delivery and the cleanest miss.

Strongest delivery
Q2 FY26 revenue and EPS beat guidance on every metric
“Apple delivered record Q2 FY26 results with revenue of $111.2B (up 17% YoY), EPS of $2.01, and gross margin of 49.3% — all above guidance.”
Kevan Parekh · Q2 FY26 concall · Apr 30 2026
Outcome: Beat on revenue, EPS, and gross margin simultaneously. $100B additional share repurchase authorized and 4% dividend raise announced.
The miss
More-personalized Siri originally promised for 2024 → still 'coming this year' in 2026
“Bringing a more personalized Siri to users coming this year.”
Tim Cook · Q2 FY26 concall · Apr 30 2026 (originally promised at WWDC 2024 for 2024)
Outcome: The personalized Siri feature was a tentpole of the 2024 Apple Intelligence announcement and was advertised as a 2024 deliverable. Two years later it remains 'coming this year.' Significant credibility hit on AI execution.

Full record

5 tracked commitments.

Click any row for the original quote, outcome, and source.
Kept
Q1 FY26
6th India retail store opens soon (Mumbai)
productSpecificity 0.80 · Deadline H1 CY 2026 · Tim Cook
MadeJan 29, 26
ResolvedApr 30, 26
Original commitment
“Apple opened its fifth store in India in December and has plans to open another store in Mumbai soon.”
Outcome
Q2 FY26: Opened sixth Apple retail store in India during the quarter.
Q2 FY26 concall · Apr 30 2026
Partial
Q2 FY26
More personalized Siri coming this year (Apple Intelligence)
productSpecificity 0.50 · Deadline Dec 31 2026 · Tim Cook
MadeApr 30, 26
ResolvedJun 10, 24
Original commitment
“Bringing a more personalized Siri to users coming this year.”
Outcome
Originally promised at WWDC 2024 for 2024 delivery. Two years past original deadline, still pending. Partial credit only because the commitment has been transparently kept on the roadmap rather than dropped.
Apple WWDC 2024 commitment · Jun 10 2024
Missed
Historical
Apple Car / Project Titan cancelled after 10+ years of investment
productSpecificity 0.30 · No public commitment but widely reported · Multi-year
MadeFeb 27, 24
Statuspending
Original commitment
“Project announced/discussed across 2014-2024. Reported team of 2,000+ engineers.”
Outcome
Officially cancelled February 2024. Largest silent abandonment of a publicly-suspected product in Apple history. Counts as a miss for transparency reasons rather than concall promise specifically.
Industry reporting · 2024-02-27
Pending
Q2 FY26
Q3 FY26 gross margin 47.5-48.5%
financialSpecificity 1.00 · Deadline Jul 2026 · Kevan Parekh
MadeApr 30, 26
Statuspending
Original commitment
“We expect gross margin to be between 47.5% and 48.5%.”
Outcome
Q3 FY26 reporting pending.
Tracking · pending
Pending
Q2 FY26
Houston Advanced Manufacturing Center opens later in 2026
capacitySpecificity 0.65 · Deadline Dec 31 2026 · Tim Cook
MadeApr 30, 26
Statuspending
Original commitment
“Opening the doors to an all-new Advanced Manufacturing Center in Houston later this year. Mac Mini production coming to US later this year at expanded Houston facility.”
Outcome
Tracking · pending CY 2026 close.
Tracking · pending

Assessment

The pattern, in one paragraph.

Strong financial execution offset by two material product credibility issues. The Vision Pro went from a tentpole launch to two consecutive quarters of silence in the prepared remarks. Apple Intelligence's marquee feature (personalized Siri) has been on a slipping roadmap for two years. Services, capital returns, and operations remain best-in-class. Tim Cook transitions to Executive Chairman effective September 1 2026; the score will track John Ternus from his first concall as CEO.

Source data: company earnings call transcripts and SEC filings. Every commitment links to a verifiable quote with deadline, outcome, and source. Methodology: specificity-weighted average of outcomes over verifiable promises. Verification: kept = delivered against stated metric; partial = honest hedge with material walk-back; missed = specific commitment unmet; silent_drop = no follow-up for 2+ subsequent calls; unverifiable = insufficient evidence.

Data analytics, not investment advice. Track-record metrics derived from publicly available executive statements. To dispute a finding, email info@b3quant.com.